August 2024 Seattle Real Estate Market Update

Sandra Manrique • August 13, 2024

SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET AT A GLANCE

 3 KEY INDICATORS
Seattle Housing Market

  1. SALES ACTIVITY INTENSITY:
  • 45.7% (VERY STRONG)
  1. INTEREST RATE:
  • 6.4% (MANAGEABLE)
  1. INVENTORY LEVEL:
  • 2.3 Months (LOW)


THE BIG DEAL
August brings good news for the Seattle housing market: interest rates are dipping, and the Fed is hinting at a September rate cut. Cheaper loans could spark renewed buyer activity, making the market buzzier than it’s been in a while. If you’re buying or selling, get ready—things could heat up fast.


Seattle Housing Market August 2024: Shifting Gears Amid Rate Cuts, Strong Sales, and Easing Inventory

Hey there! Welcome to the Seattle housing market update for August 2024. We've got some interesting twists this month as the market starts to shift gears. With a Sales Activity Intensity of 45.7%, inventory levels at 2.3 months, and interest rates dipping to a slightly more comfortable 6.4%, there's plenty to unpack.


Seattle continues to be the go-to place for tech professionals, creatives, and investors, all drawn by its booming economy and vibrant cultural scene. This month, we'll dive into our usual suspects: Sales Activity Intensity, Monthly Inventory Levels, and Interest Rates. These key indicators will give you a clear picture of what's happening in the market right now, so whether you're buying, selling, or just watching from the sidelines, you can stay ahead of the game.


Detailed Explanation of the 3 Key Indicators


  1. Sales Activity Intensity:
  • Definition: This metric reflects the percentage of homes that go under contract within the first 30 days of listing. It's a direct indicator of the market's temperature, showing how quickly homes are moving from listing to pending status.
  • Scale:
  • <25%: Buyer's market – low demand, homes take longer to sell.
  • 25%: Healthy market – balanced demand and supply.
  • 35%: Strong market – increasing demand, sellers have a slight advantage.
  • 45%: Very strong market – high demand, multiple offers are common.
  • 55%: Surge – very high demand, significantly more buyers than available homes.
  • 65%: Frenzy – extreme demand, homes sell extremely quickly, often well above asking price.
  • 75%+: Extreme frenzy – unprecedented demand, highly competitive conditions.
  1. Monthly Inventory Levels:
  • Definition: This measures the number of months it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace without any new listings being added. It's a critical indicator of market balance.
  • Scale:
  • 0-1 month: Severe shortage – extremely low inventory, seller's market.
  • 1-2 months: Shortage – low inventory, strong seller's advantage.
  • 2-3 months: Low – less inventory, leaning towards sellers.
  • 3-4 months: Healthy – balanced between buyers and sellers.
  • 4-5 months: Selectability – more options for buyers, slight buyer's advantage.
  • 5+ months: Buyer's market – high inventory, buyers have leverage.
  1. Interest Rates:
  • Definition: This refers to the average mortgage rate available to homebuyers. Interest rates are a significant factor affecting affordability and buyer demand.
  • Scale (not a fixed scale but commonly accepted ranges):
  • 3-4%: Excellent – very favorable for buyers.
  • 5-6%: Good – relatively affordable for most buyers.
  • 7-8%: Uncomfortable – can slow down buyer activity as financing becomes more expensive.
  • 9-10%: Challenging – high rates can lead to decreased demand and slower market activity.


Each of these indicators plays a crucial role in interpreting the dynamics of the Seattle housing market. By analyzing trends within these metrics, we can better understand the forces at play, predict future movements, and strategize accordingly. Whether you're looking to buy a home, sell one, or simply keep an eye on market developments, these indicators provide the insights needed to navigate the complexities of Seattle's real estate landscape.


Sales Activity Intensity


Current Effect: Around 45.7% of homes in Seattle are going pending within the first 30 days. We're in a "very strong" market, meaning homes are still selling fast, but the pace has cooled slightly from last month's surge.

Buyers need to be strategic, but there's just a tad more breathing room compared to the frenzy we saw earlier this year. Expect multiple offers, but with a bit less competition than before. Sellers still have the upper hand, but buyers might find some opportunities if they're quick.


Monthly Inventory Level


Current Effect: With 2.3 months of supply, Seattle's inventory remains on the low side, though it’s slightly better than the severe shortages we've seen. This low inventory keeps the market competitive, but the slight uptick in available homes could be a sign that things are starting to balance out—just a bit.

For buyers, this means there are a few more options out there, but not enough to slow down the market entirely. Sellers can still expect to sell quickly, especially if their homes are well-priced and in good condition.


Interest Rates


Current Effect: Interest rates have dipped to 6.4%, down from last month's uncomfortable 7.14%. This drop brings a bit of relief to buyers, making financing more affordable and potentially sparking renewed interest in the market.

While 6.4% is still on the higher side historically, it's a welcome change from recent highs, and the Fed's hints at a possible rate cut in September could further boost buyer activity. If rates continue to ease, we might see an uptick in competition as more buyers look to lock in these lower rates before they creep back up.


Overall Market Trends


The Seattle housing market in August 2024 is showing signs of gradual cooling, but it’s still a competitive arena. Inventory levels are inching up, and interest rates are becoming a little more buyer-friendly, which could lead to more balanced conditions in the near future.

That said, sellers still hold the cards in most transactions, thanks to high demand and limited supply.

Buyers, stay sharp and ready to move quickly, especially with the potential for more favorable rates on the horizon.


Residential Resale, Condos & New Construction


Resale Residential Homes: The resale market remains a stronghold, with homes often selling quickly and above asking price. However, the slight increase in inventory means sellers might have to adjust their expectations slightly, especially if more homes come on the market.

Condominiums: Demand for condos is steady, especially among first-time buyers and those looking for a more urban lifestyle. With interest rates easing, condos are becoming a more attractive option, though HOA fees can still impact overall affordability.

New Construction: New builds are still hot commodities, offering modern amenities and customization options. However, with the narrowing price gap between new constructions and resales, buyers are weighing their options carefully. Builders may need to stay competitive on pricing to keep up with the market's slight shift.


The Fed’s Influence


As of August 2024, the Federal Reserve is maintaining its cautious approach, with interest rates currently at 5.25% to 5.50%. The Fed is signaling a potential rate cut in September, which could further lower mortgage rates and stimulate more buyer activity.

If this cut happens, we might see a resurgence in the housing market, with more buyers jumping in to take advantage of lower borrowing costs.

However, if inflation remains sticky, the Fed could hold off on further cuts, keeping rates steady for the time being.


BONUS TIP: With some listings, it is possible to negotiate for Seller's concessions. Look for homes that have been on the market longer than 7-10 days. Generally, these concessions would go towards your closing costs. Now might be a good time to negotiate seller concessions towards buying down your interest rate.  Either a permanent or temporary 2/1 buydown.


Seasonality


August is typically a quieter month in the real estate world as the summer season winds down, but with the current market dynamics, we’re still seeing plenty of action.

Sellers can still expect strong offers, especially as buyers look to secure homes before potential rate changes.

Buyers, on the other hand, should stay prepared to act quickly, as the market is still competitive, though not as frenzied as earlier in the year.


Strategic Insights: Being Prepared as a Buyer and Seller


For Sellers:

  • Market Ready: Make sure your home is in top shape—buyers are still looking for move-in ready properties, and the right presentation can help you stand out.
  • Pricing: Price competitively to attract buyers quickly; with inventory ticking up, overpricing could lead to your home sitting on the market longer.

For Buyers:

  • Be Ready: Get pre-approved and be ready to move fast, especially with rates potentially dropping again.
  • Negotiation: Look for homes that have been on the market longer—there might be room to negotiate, especially with sellers who are eager to close before rates change.


The Rent Vs Buy Conversation


If you are thinking of buying a home in Seattle right now and are worried that the interest rates have increased it is important to contrast that to what you gain.

Buying a Home Means Avoiding Rising Rents

When you rent:  Your monthly payment usually goes up every time you sign a new lease

When you buy:  Your fixed-rate mortgage payment is locked in for the length of your home loan

Homeowners Own a Valuable and Tangible Asset


“. . . the average U.S. homeowner now has about $290,000 in equity.” (Corelogic)


When you rent: You won't get any return on your investment as you pay your rent monthly

When you buy: As home prices rise, and as you pay down your home loan, you build equity.


Owning Your Home Grows Your Wealth Over Time

“A monthly mortgage payment is often considered a forced savings account that helps homeowners build a net worth about 40 times higher than that of a renter.” Dr Lawrence Yun


When you rent: When the cost of renting goes up, it's more difficult to save money for a down payment to buy a home.

When you buy: As you build equity through the years, you give your net worth a big boost.


Seattle rent remains high and according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it is the second highest victim of inflation at 8.3% rise from last year.

According to Zillow the average rent for a Seattle 3-bedroom home is $3,825 per month. This equates to approximately a $700,000 home (view 3 Bedroom Seattle homes for sale in the $650K - 750K price range) with 20% down on a 30-year fixed 6.4% bought down to as low as 4.4% with a temporary 2-1 buydown interest rate loan.


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